The international coffee futures markets closed significantly lower on Tuesday, May 13, as bearish sentiments driven by production forecasts weighed heavily on both Arabica and Robusta coffee prices.
According to market data released by Uganda’s Ministry of Agriculture today, the global prices for both coffee varieties slumped on the back of expectations for increased supplies, with losses recorded across key positions on major exchanges.
On the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), Robusta coffee futures tumbled steeply, with the market retaining 90.15% of the earlier losses by the close of trading.
The July position fell by $174, settling at $5,052 per ton, which translates to sh18,478,060 per ton (sh18,478 per kilo) at the auction exchange rate of sh3,655 per US dollar.
Similarly, the September position lost $168, closing at $5,013 per ton, equivalent to sh18,334,515 per ton (sh18,335 per kilo).
Meanwhile, on the New York market, a similar bearish trend was observed, with 95.48% of the day’s losses maintained by the close.
The coffee industry attributed this sharp decline to subdued demand and mounting concerns about rising production levels.
Over at the International Commodity Exchange (ICE), Arabica coffee futures also came under pressure, reflecting the broader downturn in the global coffee trade.
The July position dropped by 14.80 US cents, closing at 372.95 US cents per pound ($3.73/ pound or sh13,626/lb or pound), while the September position fell by 14.00 US cents, ending at 368.45 US cents per pound ($3.68/ pound or sh13,454/ pound).
Traders and analysts cited a new forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) as a key market mover.
The USDA projected that coffee production in Honduras, one of Central America’s key exporters, will rise by 5.1% in the 2025/26 season to reach 5.8 million 60-kg bags.
This anticipated surplus is likely to increase global inventories and further depress prices if demand fails to keep pace.
Domestic market prices
Uganda’s coffee maintained a stable pricing at home, with Robusta Screen 18 fetching sh19,782 per kilogram, Robusta Screen 15 sold at sh19,379 Robusta Screen 12 traded at sh19,137.
Arabica coffee continued to command a premium, with Bugisu AA trading at sh29,649 per kilogram, Bugisu A following closely at sh29,568.
In terms of volumes sold, Robusta Screen 15 led the pack with 5,890 sixty-kilogram bags, followed by Robusta Screen 18 at 4,631 bags, and Drugar at 2,560 bags.
Farm gate prices stable
Farmers continued to earn reasonably well at the farm gate level, with FAQ Robusta selling between sh15,000–15,500, Kiboko Robusta ranging between sh7,000–7,700 and Arabica parchment trading between sh14,000–15,000. Drugar sold at sh15,000–15,500.
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